Race Predictor Equation research
Department of Physical Therapy
Drexel University
Philadelphia, PA, USA


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Hello fellow runners,

We are Drexel University graduate students collaborating with our professor Kevin Gard, DPT, OCS, and a local runner, Kevin Gruenfeld, who developed a new model to predict race finish times. Our goal is to test the precision of this performance prediction model that uses performances from past races to predict a finish time for an upcoming target race. That is, if you raced a 5K and a 10K, you can predict your finish time for a half marathon or marathon (or vice versa). There are other existing prediction models (Daniels VO2 Max, Riegel, Cameron, McMillan, Purdy points, Age-Grade % Charts), but we believe this one is potentially superior to their models.

To help us with our study, please download the attached form and fill it out as best as possible. We need a minimum of three races from 5k distance up to the marathon that you have completed between the dates of January 1st, 2008 and December 31st, 2009. In those three, please ensure that each distance is different. Please, feel free to enter more races as it will give us more data to work with. You may repeat the same distance after the first three races are entered. Chip time (in Hours:Minutes:Seconds) is preferred but gun or watch time is acceptable. Please specify which timing method was used. If the race did not go as expected (i.e., you felt you ran a poor performance), still include but explain why. We want to know things such as if the weather was poor (too hot, humid, rainy, etc.), if the course was too hilly, or if you were just not feeling your best on that day. Personal data will be kept confidential.

We seek runners of ALL SPEEDS: fast, slow, and in between. If we get only a narrow range of speeds, the study won't be as robust, so don't think you are too slow or too fast to participate! We need data by February 28th 2010, but the sooner we receive your data the better. If you'd like to hear about the final outcome of the study, please feel free to contact us.


Jason Bednarski

Daniel Lyons


This website was created 28.JAN.2009.